Research Objectives

We are developping a web-based tool designed to enable expert elicitation of the probabilities associated with a Bayesian Network. The motivation behind this tool is to enable assessment of probabilities from a distributed team of experts when face-to-face elicitation is not an option, for instance because of time and budget constraints.

Our tool provides the ability for the risk analyst:

• To generate a survey by importing and customizing a BBN from a Genie file.
• To ask for qualitative or quantitative input
• To follow the progress of the elicitation effort through a status screen
• To elicit opinions from several experts and aggregate them
• To export a populated BBN model into a Genie file

References

A Myopic Approach to Ordering Nodes for Parameter Elicitation in Bayesian Belief Networks, Bhattacharjya D, Deleris L, Ray B, INFORMS, San Diego, California, 2009

A Web-based Tool for Expert Elicitation in Distributed Teams, Spaccasassi C, Deleris LA, Proceedings of the 8th Bayesian Modelling Applications Workshop of UAI 2011, 2011